Fault Tree

OBD-II differential diagnosis

P0420 — Catalyst system efficiency below threshold (bank 1)

The computer compares the oxygen sensor before the catalytic converter with the one after it. If both read the same, the converter is not doing its job, or one of the sensors is lying.
System
Powertrain
Definition
Generic (SAE-defined, all manufacturers)
Subsystem
Auxiliary emission controls
Severity
moderate

Causes, by prior probability

CausePriorRepair
Downstream O2 sensor (bank 1, sensor 2)
Sensor 2 voltage should be slow and steady near 0.6-0.7V. If it mirrors sensor 1, the sensor is reporting, not the converter.
30% $217
Catalytic converter genuinely failed
Only after the four above are excluded. Confirm with a temperature differential across the converter body.
21% $1,492
Exhaust leak before or at the converter
Smoke test the exhaust. A leak upstream pulls false air across sensor 2.
19% $244
Upstream O2 sensor lazy (bank 1, sensor 1)
Sensor 1 should oscillate 0.1-0.9V several times per second at cruise. A slow sensor drives the converter rich.
16% $231
Engine running rich (injector or fuel pressure)
Negative long-term fuel trims. Fix the cause before replacing the converter or you will kill the new one too.
14% $142
These are priors from the code alone. A scan's freeze frame reorders them, which is the entire point of capturing it.